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There are three problems: `stale prices', `bid-ask bounce' and vulnerability
to manipulation. Through these problems, an index is actually worsened when
illiquid stocks are put into it.
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Illiquid stocks yield bad price data; so the best quality data will come from
the most liquid exchange. In India, that is NSE. The S&P CNX Nifty uses price
data from NSE for calculations.
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Suppose we look at the closing price of an index. It is supposed to reflect
the state of the stock market at 3:30 PM on NSE. Suppose an illiquid stock is in
the index. The last traded price (LTP) of the stock might be an hour, or a day,
or a week old! The index is supposed to show how the stock market perceives the
future of the corporate sector at 3:30 PM. When an illiquid stock injects these
`stale prices' into the calculation of an index, it makes the index more stale.
It reduces the accuracy with which the index reflects information.
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Suppose a stock trades at bid 1440 ask 1490. Suppose no news appears for ten
minutes. But, over this period, suppose that a buy order first comes in (at
Rs.1490) followed by a sell order (at Rs. 1440). This sequence of events makes
it seem that the stock price has dropped by Rs.50. This is a totally spurious
price movement! Even when no news is breaking, when a stock price is not
changing, the `bid-ask bounce' is about prices bouncing up and down between bid
and ask. These changes are spurious. This problem is the greatest with illiquid
stocks where the bid-ask spread is wide. When an index component shows such
price changes it contaminates the index.
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The index is a large entity and is intrinsically harder to manipulate when
compared to individual stocks. Obviously, larger indices are harder to
manipulate than smaller indices. The weak links in an index are the large,
illiquid stocks. These are the achilles heel where a manipulator obtains maximum
impact upon the index at minimum cost. Optimal index manipulation consists of
attacking these stocks. This is one more reason why illiquid stocks should be
excluded from a market index; indeed this aspect requires that the liquidity of
a stock in an index should be proportional to its market capitalisation.
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Last updated on March 10, 2008.
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